Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis Prediction: Why the Underdog Wins
The oddsmakers at DraftKings just dropped the betting lines for the UFC Oklahoma City main event on July 18, 2026, and they are writing off one of the greatest champions in UFC history.
Right now, Dricus du Plessis sits as a heavy -295 favorite, while Kamaru Usman is a massive +240 underdog.
On paper, it makes sense. Du Plessis is 32 years old, in his physical prime, and a naturally massive middleweight. Usman is 39, moving up from welterweight, and has well-documented mileage on his knees.
The Tale of the Tape: The Khamzat Chimaev Litmus Test
To understand why Usman can win this fight, you only have to look back at how both men handled the division's scariest boogeyman, Khamzat Chimaev.
Usman’s Performance: Took the fight on 10 days' notice, moved up in weight, stuffed 8 out of 12 takedowns, out-struck Chimaev in rounds 2 and 3, and walked away with a razor-thin majority decision loss.
Du Plessis’s Performance: Had a full 12-week championship training camp, got taken down 12 times, absorbed a historic 529 strikes, and lost a devastating 50-44 shutout.
Usman’s elite freestyle wrestling background allows him to survive and adapt in deep grappling waters where Du Plessis completely drowns.
The Statistical Nightmare for Dricus
Let's talk about the single most glaring statistic in modern championship history: Dricus du Plessis has a 34% takedown defense.
Du Plessis doesn't wrestle; he scrambles. He uses brute physical force to explode back to his feet, often giving up his back or turtling in the process. While that explosive "bully" style works against pure strikers like Sean Strickland or Israel Adesanya, it is a death sentence against a high-IQ chain-wrestler.
Usman averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. He won't try to blast through Du Plessis with explosive double-legs that stress his knees. Instead, expect Usman to use Trevor Wittman's game plan: press Du Plessis against the fence, lock up his hips, and use dirty boxing to make the bigger man carry all 185 pounds of Usman's weight.
The Elephant in the Room: The Physical Risk
Let’s be entirely honest—this is a incredibly risky bet. It will not be an easy night at the office for "The Nigerian Nightmare."
The danger for Usman isn't a lack of skill; it's pure physics and Father Time. Du Plessis is a naturally broader, heavier fighter who cuts from a much higher walk-around weight. If Usman shoots a lazy takedown, Du Plessis has the raw frame to stuff it and counter with awkward, fight-ending power hooks. At 39 years old, Usman's chin and joints cannot afford to take clean shots from a natural 185-pound powerhouse.
The Final Verdict
This is the ultimate "Skill & IQ vs. Size & Youth" matchup.
Du Plessis will bring the chaos early, but Usman’s championship experience, superior jab fundamentals under Wittman, and elite top control will slowly take the air out of the room. Usman will survive a scary first round, ground the champion down over 25 minutes, and leave Oklahoma City with a legacy-defining victory.
My Prediction: Kamaru Usman via Decision
